A positive trend in economic development will continue for the next 3 months, the authors of the study believe.
The easing of quarantine restrictions and the large-scale measures taken by the government to support the economy made it possible to maintain positive rates of economic growth.
The economic situation in Uzbekistan continues to improve, which is confirmed by the results of the January survey among enterprises to assess the state of the business climate, which reflect the mood in the Uzbek business communities.
Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) in January this year interviewed 1,005 enterprises across the country to find out how they assess the prospects for their business development.
The survey was carried out in two directions: a qualitative assessment of the current state of the business and the expectations of entrepreneurs regarding the prospects for their business development in the next two to three months.
Indicator of the current state of business in January 2021. amounted to 50 points, an increase of 17 points compared to the previous month, which characterizes the moderately positive sentiment of entrepreneurs regarding the current state of their business.
In particular, the indicator of the current state in the field of agriculture in January of this year. rose by a record 45 points since the beginning of the pandemic; in the construction sector, the increase was 30 points; the industry also recorded an increase of 4 points; services showed the smallest growth by 3 points.
The analysis showed that out of 1005 surveyed enterprises, 38% rated the current state of their business as “good”, 45% – as “satisfactory” and only 17% – as “bad”.
42% of the respondents reported that the demand for goods / services “improved”, 45% believe – “has not changed”, 13% – “worsened”. The number of employees “increased” for 18% of enterprises, “did not change” – 74%, “decreased” – 8%.
The indicator of expectations for business development prospects for the next 3 months amounted to 89 points, having increased by 16 points, that is, the expectations of entrepreneurs about the prospects for their business development for the next 3 months are positive.
In particular, in January, growth was shown by indicators of expectations of prospects in the field of agriculture by 5 points; industry by 26 points; construction at 19 points; services by 14 points, respectively.
The analysis revealed that 79% of the surveyed enterprises estimated that the prospects for their business would “improve”, 20% said that it would “not change” and only 1% admitted “deterioration”.
It is expected that demand for goods / services will “improve” in 73% of enterprises, 25% are confident that it will “not change”, 2% predict a “deterioration” in demand.
More than half of enterprises plan to “increase” the number of employees over the next three months (66%), while 33% of the respondents answered that the number of employees “will not change” and only 1% answered “it will decrease”.
22% of enterprises predict an “increase” in prices for their goods / services, 28% are sure that prices “will not change”, 2% expect a “decrease” in prices, and 48% “do not know” how the cost of goods and services will change.
The business climate indicator shows moderate growth for the second month in a row, having increased by 17 points in January it amounted to 69 points, i.e. experts assess the state of the business climate in the country as “good”.
The relationship between the values of the current situation and expectations means that the positive trend in economic development will continue for the next 3 months.
In particular, a significant increase by 26 points in January was shown by the indicator of the business climate in agriculture, in industry the growth was 14 points, in construction and services there was also an increase of 25 and 9 points, respectively.
Assessment of similar indicators of the business climate in January of this year for the main partner countries it is located as follows: Turkey (7), China (1.3) and South Korea (-15).
